Is the field of genetics the next innovators sandpit ?
Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, predicted in the mid 60’s that computer chip performance would double every c18 months (otherwise known as Moore’s Law) and we’ve seen that track through to the modern day, and witnessed the social, economic and global benefits that have resulted in what we’re now calling the digital age, and the innovators playground
However some are now saying, with associated proof, that this rate of growth is slowing down and they cite an end to this natural phenomena, which of course is driving a whole new array of chip and nanotechnology innovation ventures in return … So let’s see where that takes us, but perhaps more importantly and very interestingly let’s try and understand how this law of compound accelerating returns could and is already tracking into other, parallel areas such as AI, renewable energy and manufacturing (including robotics and 3D printing)
And perhaps the most exciting area that most thought leaders are projecting this law of accelerating returns will map to is the field of genetics and the study of what makes us humans work (and not !)
As a proxy, lets take for instance the astonishing growth of the remote genetic testing offered by 23andMe in the US (see the article below that spurred me write about this). Today for roughly $200 you can benefit from fully remote home genetic testing (either through a physical kit and now also available through mobile applications) – the same service cost c$1,000 in 2010 and and a staggering $1bn+ in just 2003. But the wow punch is not the 1:1 benefit, but it’s the fact that 23andMe has now partially sequenced some 1.2 million genomes already and is making c80% of the results (post consent) available for clinical trials
So fast forward – imagine if testing services such as 23andMe (Apple and Fitbit are also looking to get in on the action) were to offer the collection of and access to quantum’s of genetic data across regions and demographic ranges. How much could the cost per test be driven down ? At the same time what paradigm benefits could be gleaned from the analysis of millions of classified, democratised test result ?
Is there a Moore’s Law for genetic testing and clinical development – most probably, so watch this space for it to be coined
… and while it’s not all plain sailing with accuracy from remote testing a challenge, ethics a big concern and of course the complex weaving together of an entire ecosystem to support valuable and valid outcomes at individual, commercial and clinical levels the most significant challenge, but dare I say the most significant innovators opportunity
Investors, innovators, interested citizens in the world of tomorrow, patients, parents or business owners – go figure
